California sends contradictory economic signals – CalMatters

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California, explained
When it comes to California’s economy, the numbers tell wildly different and seemingly incompatible stories — leading to competing narratives ahead of the Nov. 8 election as residents identify jobs, the economy and inflation as the top issues facing the state.
Take GDP: On the one hand, Gov. Gavin Newsom is trumpeting a Bloomberg opinion piece that argues California is poised to overtake Germany in GDP growth and become the world’s fourth largest economy. “While critics often say California’s best days are behind us, reality proves otherwise,” the governor said in a statement.
The California Business Roundtable — which often accuses Sacramento of pursuing policies that place undue burdens on businesses — sees it differently, arguing in a recent press release that the Golden State is unlikely to pass Germany and only achieved its fifth-place spot due to “contraction of the UK economy in the wake of Brexit.”
Take (un)employment: California’s unemployment rate fell to 3.9% in September, tying July for the lowest rate recorded in a data series stretching back to 1976, the state’s Employment Development Department announced Friday. Newsom’s office applauded the 0.2% drop from August’s jobless rate of 4.1%, noting that California in September “also added jobs for the twelfth consecutive month and has now recovered 99.1% of jobs lost to the pandemic-induced recession.”
But California’s unemployment rate fell “only because the number of Californians in the labor force also declined” on a seasonally adjusted basis by nearly 48,000 people, Michael Bernick, a former EDD director and attorney at Duane Morris, told me in an email. He added that the Golden State’s gain of 6,500 payroll jobs in September was “far below” the more than 60,000 jobs it averaged adding per month through July, and only two sectors — education and health services and leisure and hospitality — saw “significant” job gains.
Take economic health: Despite the ravages of the pandemic, California’s poverty rate fell from 16.4% in 2019 to a projected 11.7% in fall 2021, largely due to expanded federal and state social safety net programs, according to a Tuesday report from the Public Policy Institute of California. But more than a quarter of Californians are still living in or near poverty, the study found.
Another Tuesday report from PPIC gave off similarly mixed signals. It found that:
Time to vote: Find out everything you need to know about voting before California’s election ends Nov. 8 in the CalMatters Voter Guide, which includes information on races, candidates and propositions, as well as videos, interactives and campaign finance data. And if you missed CalMatters’ event last week on the seven ballot measures, you can watch it here and read a brief recap here.
Newsom took his fight against oil and gas companies up a notch on Tuesday, citing Valero’s $2.82 billion in profits from July to September — up from $463 million during the same period last year — as proof that California should enact a windfall profits tax on the industry and return the excess money to consumers. “Big oil is ripping Californians off, hiking gas prices and making record profits,” Newsom said in a statement. “As Valero jacked up their profits by over 500% in just a year, Californians were paying for it at the pump instead of passing down those savings.”
Meanwhile, California gas prices are dropping at a near-record rate, with the average price for a gallon of regular cresting $5.71 on Tuesday, down from more than $6 last week, according to AAA. Newsom’s office attributed the steep decline to “the governor’s actions,” including allowing refineries to begin producing cheaper winter-blend gasoline earlier than usual.
Depending on how you look at it, the future of sports betting in California just got more or less complicated. Late last week, the supporters of a proposed 2024 initiative to permit Native American tribes to operate both in-person and online sports betting announced that they had failed to gather enough signatures to put it on the ballot. The campaign behind the measure — sponsored by a coalition of California tribes — said through spokesperson Roger Salazar that “we made a strategic decision this year to concentrate our full resources on defeating Proposition 27,” one of two dueling measures to legalize sports betting on the November ballot.
Latest coverage of the 2022 general election in California
Polls suggest that both Props. 26 and 27 are likely to fail even after the campaigns on both sides of the initiatives raised more than $440 million. The backers of the two measures have admitted their likely defeat, even as they gear up for the next iteration of the battle.
The 5.1-magnitude earthquake that struck near San Jose on Tuesday served as a rattling reminder of the value of communication during natural disasters: About 100,000 people received a notification from the Earthquake Warning California app before shaking started, Brian Ferguson, deputy director for crisis communication and public affairs for the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services, told CNN. The office urged residents to sign up for early warnings, noting that “these alerts can provide valuable seconds of life-saving notification before you feel the ground shaking.” Newsom’s office also tweeted a link to the app. No significant damages or injuries related to the earthquake were reported Tuesday.
Meanwhile, state regulators on Tuesday unveiled a proposed $155.4 million fine for PG&E shareholders for violations related to the 2020 Zogg Fire in Shasta County, which killed four people and destroyed more than 200 structures. PG&E now has 30 days to decide whether to pay the penalty or to request a hearing.
CalMatters columnist Dan Walters: Kevin de León began his political career as a proponent of immigrants’ rights, but somewhere along the line he morphed into careerist self-absorption.
Proposal for zero-emission trucks misses the mark: The California Air Resources Board is poised to adopt a mandate that will increase costs, erase working-class jobs and strain our overburdened electrical grid by pushing for too much, too fast, argues Chris Shimoda, senior vice president of government affairs for the California Trucking Association.
Homeless service providers need help, too: Newsom, the Legislature and many others rely on us to address California’s homelessness crisis, but these same officials have not provided our sector with stable or sufficient resources to sustain skilled and experienced staff, writes Kenyaun Christie, associate director at Larkin Street Youth Services.
Los Angeles police investigating if racist recording taped illegally. // Associated Press
Democratic registration is rising in California, but not with this one group. // San Francisco Chronicle
Residents turn to ballot box to fight new California housing mandates. // KQED
Maienschein faces stiff competition to retain state Assembly seat. // San Diego Union-Tribune
A big-money mayor’s race is shaping up to be a fight for the soul of Silicon Valley. // San Francisco Chronicle
Ex-Anaheim mayor refuses to disclose emails amid FBI corruption investigation. // Los Angeles Times
How Supreme Court decision on affirmative action could affect California private colleges. // EdSource
California sees increase in RSV, a respiratory illness that can be dangerous for babies. // Los Angeles Times
Patients died from COVID-19 drug treatment at two California hospitals, suits allege. // Mercury News
Multiple Bay Area health care strikes reflect a workforce decimated by labor shortage. // KQED
Adjuncts sue California community college system over unpaid work hours. // EdSource
Life and death row: A California prison murder ripples through time. // Los Angeles Times
S.F.’s answer to safety concerns is more community ambassadors. // San Francisco Standard
San Diegans are falling into homelessness faster than the region can house them. // Voice of San Diego
Bay Area is the only California region where homes are selling for less than last year. // Mercury News
Why did Cotopaxi leave San Francisco? // The Atlantic
Tips, insight or feedback? Email [email protected].
Follow me on Twitter: @emily_hoeven
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