The Phillies made the World Series — why some say a stock market crash is next – MarketWatch

Some people are likening the Philadelphia Phillies to the horsemen of the economic apocalypse. 
That’s because there’s been a curious — if rather weak — relationship over the past century between World Series titles for Philadelphia baseball teams and financial-market meltdowns. And the Phillies just made it to the 2022 World Series.
In terms of historical precedence, we have at the top of the order: 
So the Phillies’ win against the San Diego Padres on Sunday night, punching the Philadelphia team’s ticket to the Series beginning this Friday, had some folks pondering the prospect of a historical repeat. After all, tongues have been wagging about whether the U.S. is in a recession or not for months now. And, certainly, plenty of economic and stock-market strategists have been warning of a coming recession.
So are Philadelphia ball clubs really cursing the market? 
Of course not — just chalk these few examples up to coincidence and bad timing. After all, there have been 12 recessions since 1948 — and the Phillies failed to make the World Series during 10 of them.
“Oh mercy sakes alive, the World Series phenomenon and markets has been around as long as I have, which is probably too long,” laughed Art Hogan, the chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth Management, in a chat with MarketWatch. “It’s fun to contemplate, but, very fortunately, its predictive power has diminished over time.” 
Hogan noted that there are so many different players impacting stock-market performance — including economic data, politics and impacts from the lingering COVID pandemic, to name just a few — that a single baseball team’s performance is never going to be a game changer. “The market has many more participants, and it’s impossible to erase all of that just because of a best-out-of-seven-game series coming up this week,” he said. 
Hogan noted that some other amusing, unscientific barometers for stock-market performance that he’s heard over the years include the “Super Bowl Indicator,” which suggests a correlation between a Super Bowl win from either an American Football Conference team or a National Football Conference team with whether there’s a bear or a bull market the following year. In short, an AFC team winning the Super Bowl supposedly foretells a market downturn, while an NFC team taking the title predicts a stock-market climb. That theory is full of bull, period.
“There’s things as absurd as [correlating] the popular length of women’s skirts” and stock-market performance, said Hogan — which is, no joke, also known as the “Hemline Index.” Apparently, ladies flash more leg when economic times are good, but start dressing more conservatively heading into downturns. 
“It certainly makes for fun and interesting cocktail conversations,” Hogan added. “But I can tell you that no one on the trading desk is taking it more seriously than that.” 
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Nicole Lyn Pesce is News Editor, Trending at MarketWatch and is based in New York.
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